Southern California Market Pulse: LA, OC & Riverside July 2026, Other Counties June 2026
Breaking: September 1 to 8, 2026
August Payrolls Smash Forecasts, Up 162,000 Versus 53,000 Expected
Nonfarm payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, more than triple the consensus estimate, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Wages rose 0.3% to $37.75 an hour. The report is a sharp reversal from July's surprise loss of 23,000 jobs and gives the Fed's hawks real ammunition heading into September.
PMMS Rises to 6.71%, 10-Year Treasury Nears 4.80%
Freddie Mac's PMMS climbed to 6.71% for the week ending September 3, a second consecutive weekly increase following August's brief dip. The 10 year Treasury has followed, trading near 4.79% to 4.80%, the highest level since January 2025, as strong jobs data and hawkish Fed commentary reprice rate expectations.
Hike Odds Near 60% With CPI and FOMC Both Landing This Month
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's September 3 speech reinforced the hawkish tilt from Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, and the strong jobs report added fuel. CME FedWatch shows roughly 58% to 60% odds of a September hike, essentially a coin flip leaning toward action. August CPI on Friday, September 11 is the last major data point before the Fed meets September 15 to 16.
Buyer, Seller & Investor Take
The Rate Window From Late August Has Closed
PMMS is up for a second straight week to 6.71%, and the 10 year Treasury just touched its highest level since January 2025. A strong jobs report removed the case for a near term Fed pause. Friday's CPI report is the next real catalyst: a hot print likely pushes rates higher into the FOMC meeting, a cool one could offer a brief window to lock lower.
Get Pre-Qualified Today →Expect Slower Decisions as Payments Climb
Two straight weeks of higher rates mean buyer monthly payments are climbing again, which typically slows decision speed even in counties with strong fundamentals like Riverside and Orange. Price realistically to your county's actual trend, LA down 2.6% year over year, OC up 5.4%, Riverside up 3%, and expect more rate sensitive negotiation over the next two weeks.
See Your Home's Value →DSCR Coverage Just Got Tighter
Rates moving from 6.65% to 6.71% in three weeks meaningfully tightens DSCR coverage on marginal deals. Riverside County's confirmed 3% year over year gain to $649,000 remains the cleanest Inland Empire data point; San Bernardino stays on June's $508,080 until a reliable July figure surfaces. Structure now for a rate environment that could move further after Friday's CPI and next week's FOMC.
Run Your DSCR Numbers →Talk It Through With Troy's Advisor, Right Now
Chat With Troy's Advisor →Market Calendar
Two events define the next two weeks. August CPI, Friday September 11, is the last major inflation read before the Fed decides, a hot print would likely push hike odds above 60%, a cool one could pull them back toward a hold. The FOMC meets September 15 to 16, with odds now a near coin flip. Watch for updated July C.A.R. figures on San Diego, Ventura, and San Bernardino counties in the coming weeks.
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