Southern California Market Pulse: County Medians, July 2026
Breaking: This Week in SoCal Real Estate
California Median Rebounds to $901,420, Back Above $900K
California's statewide median climbed back above $900,000 in August after dipping below it in July, rising 1.6% to $901,420. Year over year gains remain modest at 0.1%, the fourth straight month of annual increases, while the share of million dollar sales slipped to 35.2% from 35.5% in July. Sales volume rose to 269,620 units SAAR, up 2.4% from July.
September Payrolls Badly Miss: +29,000 vs. 84,000 Expected
September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000, well short of the 84,000 forecast, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. July and August were also revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. One bright spot: the broader U-6 underemployment measure fell to 7.6%, its lowest since January 2025.
PMMS Posts Largest Weekly Jump in Roughly Four Years
Despite cooler August PCE and a weak jobs report, PMMS jumped to 7.28% from 7.03%, its largest weekly increase in about four years. Treasury yields initially fell on the soft jobs data but reversed within days as oil prices rebounded and other bond market pressures took over. The 10 year Treasury has since eased slightly to around 5.26%. A genuine disconnect between the economic data and financing costs.
Buyer, Seller & Investor Take
Don't Assume Weak Jobs Data Means Lower Rates
This week proved that a soft jobs report and cooling inflation don't automatically translate into cheaper financing. PMMS jumped to 7.28%, its biggest weekly move in roughly four years, even as the broader economic data pointed the other direction. If you've been waiting on rates for relief, don't assume it's coming on a predictable timeline.
Get Pre-Qualified Today →California's Median Just Posted Its 4th Straight Month of Gains
The statewide rebound to $901,420 is a genuine tailwind, but financing costs jumping to 7.28% this week could slow buyer urgency even as prices firm. Watch how your specific county performs when August county level data confirms, and price with both trends in mind, not just the headline statewide number.
See Your Home's Value →Re-Underwrite Every Deal Against This Week's 7.28% PMMS
California's foreclosure starts remain elevated at an estimated 2,685, still third most of any state, keeping the distressed sourcing pipeline open. But financing costs just posted their largest weekly jump in four years, meaning DSCR coverage on any marginal deal needs a fresh look before you submit.
Run Your DSCR Numbers →Talk It Through With Troy's Advisor, Right Now
Chat With Troy's Advisor →Market Calendar
Watch for county level August C.A.R. figures to confirm over the coming weeks, following this week's statewide release. On the financing side, the next FOMC meeting is October 27 to 28, now carrying extra weight given the mixed signals from this week's jobs and inflation data against a sharply higher PMMS print.
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