Southern California Market Pulse: County Medians, September 2026
Breaking: This Week in SoCal Real Estate
Los Angeles County Median Jumps 5% to $994,670
Los Angeles County posted the largest monthly price move in Southern California, rising from $946,950 in August to $994,670 in September, up 1.2% from a year ago. Volume did not follow: LA sales fell 10.9% year over year. Statewide, the median slipped to $899,720 while the million dollar share rose to 35.9%, and C.A.R. said declining pending sales point to further softening in closed transactions.
Fed Holds at 3.75% to 4%, Two Officials Vote for a Hike
The Fed paused after September's quarter point hike, its first increase since July 2023. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of another hike. A day later, September PCE showed headline inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.1%, both above August, while Q3 GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace. CME FedWatch showed 82.6% odds of a December hike on decision day.
Treasury Yields Fell 35 Basis Points in October. Mortgage Rates Barely Moved.
The 10 year Treasury dropped from 5.29% at the end of September to 4.94% on October 30. Over roughly the same stretch, PMMS moved only from 7.28% to 7.24%. The spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries widened by about a quarter point, so the bond rally has not yet translated into cheaper financing. The 15 year fixed averaged 6.60%.
Buyer, Seller & Investor Take
Use the Slowdown in Volume as Negotiating Room
Statewide sales fell 6.5% from a year ago and C.A.R. says buyers have more time to weigh options this fall. That is leverage on price, credits, and terms. Financing is the constraint: PMMS sits at 7.24% and two Fed officials just voted for another hike. Negotiate seller paid credits toward a rate buydown instead of waiting for rates to fix affordability.
Get Pre-Qualified Today →Your County's Number Matters More Than the State's
Los Angeles jumped 5% in a month while San Diego fell 3.7% and Riverside slipped 2.1%. A statewide median just under $900,000 tells you almost nothing about your street. With pending sales declining heading into winter, price to your county's current data and expect buyers to ask for concessions.
See Your Home's Value →Riverside and San Bernardino Are Moving in Opposite Directions
San Bernardino's median rose 6.2% year over year to $531,090, the strongest annual gain in SoCal, while Riverside slipped 0.6% to $620,000 with sales down 12.7%. California foreclosure starts stood at 2,565 in ATTOM's latest monthly count, third most of any state. Underwrite DSCR coverage at current rates with room for a December hike, not at the rate you hope to refinance into.
Run Your DSCR Numbers →Talk It Through With Troy's Advisor, Right Now
Chat With Troy's Advisor →Market Calendar
This week: September JOLTS on Tuesday, November 3, Freddie Mac's next PMMS reading on Thursday, November 5, and the October jobs report on Friday, November 6. October CPI follows on Tuesday, November 10. The next FOMC meeting is December 8 to 9, with markets leaning toward a hike after two dissents in October. C.A.R.'s October sales and price report is due later in November.
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